Is the Social Security Trust Fund in trouble? Yes. The government has been spending excess payroll taxes for decades to cover current federal spending. On August 14, 1935, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act. The act created a program to pay income to retired workers aged 65 or older. Funds for social security came from payroll taxes, known as “FICA.” The Social Security Trust Fund was established in 1937 to manage the revenue from these taxes so that they could be redistributed as social security income. According to Social Security administrators, the combined AHV and FDI trust funds face a financial deficit of $16.8 trillion and $53 trillion over an infinite horizon by 2094. Since then, the fund has received more income than it has paid in benefits. It`s because of America`s demographics. Currently, there are 2.7 workers for each beneficiary. Thanks to payroll tax, more money was put into the fund than was spent on benefits.
It was also because of tax increases and adjustments to benefits. In 1977, the payroll tax rate rose from 6.45% to 7.65%. Since then, the Trust Fund has been in surplus. While most Social Security experts doubt that Congress will cut benefits by 25 percent once trust funds run out, it`s highly likely that current and future beneficiaries will face significant cuts in lifetime benefits that could affect financial security in retirement. The Board of Directors holds the funds in trust. [10] The managing trustee is responsible for the investment of the funds[11] delegated to the Tax Office. [12] There are three differences between these special securities and U.S. Treasuries: they are non-negotiable, they are only available for trust funds, and they are only purchased with payroll tax. The Treasury repays these bonds with interest to pay for benefits. The money for the repayment of the bonds comes from the General Fund.
According to the law, any excess income that is not spent on benefits or administrative costs must be invested in government bonds with special issues that are only available for social security. A market interest rate is paid on these special bonds held by social security trust funds and is part of the income the program receives. However, even right-wing politicians have been incompatible with the language they use when referring to Social Security. For example, Bush pointed out that the system will go “bankrupt” in 2042. This date stems from the expected exhaustion of the trust fund, so Bush`s language “seems to indicate that there is something that will disappear in 2042.” [27] Especially in 2042 and for many decades thereafter, the social security system may continue to pay benefits, but benefit payments are limited by the 12.4% FICA (Social Security Payroll) tax income base on wages. According to Social Security administrators, maintaining payroll tax revenues of 12.4 percent will allow Social Security to pay about 74 percent of the benefits promised in the 2040s, with that ratio falling to about 70 percent by the end of the forecast period in 2080. [28] Trust funds have surpluses in that the amount paid by current employees is greater than the amount paid to current beneficiaries. These surpluses are invested in special U.S. Treasuries that are paid into trust funds. If trust funds begin to run deficits, which means that more benefits are paid than contributions paid, the Social Security Administration is empowered to repay the securities and use these funds to cover the deficit. The money to cover the program costs (mainly benefit payments) of the trust funds comes from the redemption or sale of securities held by the trust funds. Interest is paid on the redemption of “special securities”.
In fact, the nominal amount of the special issues repaid, plus the corresponding interest, is just enough to cover the necessary costs. Social security trust funds provide cash benefits to the elderly and disabled, as well as their spouses and relatives. They are mainly financed by social security contributions. In other words, the government has already spent the money it received in exchange for government bonds issued to Social Security trust funds. This is precisely what President Obama`s 2011 federal budget shows: “The existence of large trust fund balances alone does not increase the government`s ability to pay benefits.” The social security system is primarily a pay-as-you-go system, which means that payments to current retirees come from current payments in the system. The program was founded in 1935 in response to the Great Depression. The first to apply for Social Security in 1940 was Ida Mae Fuller. Miss Fuller paid $24.75 in taxes over her three years under the Social Security program and received a total of $22,889 in benefits before she died at age 100. This equates to a ratio of $925 in benefits for every dollar she has deposited into the program.
The money that goes into trust funds is invested in U.S. Treasuries. Since the government is spending this borrowed money, some people see the asset reserves of the trust fund as an accumulation of securities that the government will no longer be able to buy back in the future. Without legislation to restore the long-term solvency of trust funds, the repurchase of long-term securities before maturity would be necessary. Both the AHV and IV trust funds are in deficit, as the benefits currently exceed the total amount of taxes paid. In recent years, the costs (mainly benefits) of the OASDI combined trust fund have exceeded returns, including Interest Payments from the Consolidated Revenue Fund, although they barely break even in 2018 (Table 1). However, without interest, the combined trust fund has been running deficits since 2010 (see Figure 1). In the 2019 Fiduciary Report, the Social Security Actuaries foresee that the FDI Trust Fund will be exhausted by 2052 and the AHV Trust Fund by 2035. If one of the two events occurs, the Social Security Administration can only pay a portion of the benefits from the social security contributions received – about three-quarters of the benefits promised in the case of social security. For years, the board of directors has warned that the demographic changes that caused the surplus would also lead to the demise of the fund.
As baby boomers begin to retire from the workforce, there will be fewer workers supporting more retirees. This will increase the old-age dependency ratio. In the past, trust funds held negotiable government bonds that are publicly available. Unlike marketable securities, special issues can be refunded at face value at any time. Marketable securities are subject to open market forces and may incur a loss or make a profit if sold before maturity. Investing in special issues gives trust funds the same flexibility as holding cash. While the date of exhaustion of combined trust funds varies somewhat from year to year depending on economic conditions, over the past 20 years, trust reports have consistently estimated that combined trust funds will be depleted between 2037 and 2042. “Program revenues” have several components, including payroll tax contributions, benefit taxation, and an accounting entry to reflect recent payroll tax reductions in 2011 and 2012 to make the Fund “whole” as if these tax reductions had not occurred. All of this contributes to the program`s revenues. Surplus funds are used by the government for purposes other than social security, thus creating obligations to the Social Security Administration and thus to the beneficiaries of the program. Congress, however, could reduce these commitments by changing the law. Trust fund obligations are considered “domestic” debt, a component of “public” or “national” debt.
As of June 2015, the national debt was $5.1 trillion out of the $18.2 trillion national debt. [6] Trust funds receive additional income from income tax on benefits (a kind of means test through the back door) and interest on obligations held in the trust fund (a form of domestic transfer). Unfortunately, there is widespread confusion about how social security trust funds work. Some doubt that the bonds held as assets in trust funds are “real,” while others falsely claim that the existence of trust funds means that social security has no financial problem. The trust fund is expected to peak at around $3.0 trillion in 2021. [17] If the parts of the budget outside of Social Security are in deficit, as the Congressional Budget Office and several groups of budget experts assume for the foreseeable future, there are several implications: Congress has appointed several committees to determine the program. She asked former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to focus on short-term solutions. The Greenspan Commission recommended raising taxes to fund programs, raising the retirement age and taking other income-saving measures. The Social Security Trust Fund is made up of two separate funds that hold federal government debt securities related to what has traditionally been considered social security benefits.
The largest of these funds is the Old Age and Survivors` Insurance Trust Fund (AHV), which holds in trust special interest-bearing federal securities that have been purchased with excess revenue from the avssive payroll tax. [8] The second, smaller fund is the Disability Insurance Trust (DI) Fund, which holds in trust a larger portion of the federal government`s interest-bearing special securities purchased with excess FDI payroll tax revenues. [9] This means that from 2021, when Social Security begins to repay government bond holdings in the trust fund to pay for planned benefits, the government will have to borrow from the public, raise taxes or reduce spending to finance these repayments. According to current projections, the combined social security trust funds will have a deficit for 2021 (where annual costs will exceed revenues). With the assets currently in the funds, interest and the value of the repayable government bonds, the full benefits will be payable until 2033, when the combined funds expire. .